EURUSD continues higher
EURUSD continued to race higher on Monday and hit resistance at 1.0970 (R1). The rate is still trading above the prior short-term downtrend line taken from the peak of the 26th of February and above the uptrend line drawn from the low of the 13th of March, therefore I would consider the short-term bias to remain positive. Although we may experience a minor retreat, I would expect the next leg up to challenge the resistance hurdle of 1.1045 (R2). As for the broader trend, the price structure still suggests a longer-term downtrend. EURUSD is printing lower peaks and lower troughs below both the 50- and the 200-day moving averages. Therefore, I would treat the near-term uptrend or any possible extensions of it as corrective move of the larger down path.
• Support: 1.0885 (S1), 1.0765 (S2), 1.0700 (S3).
• Resistance: 1.0970 (R1), 1.1045 (R2), 1.1160 (R3).
GBPUSD waits for the UK CPI
GBPUSD rebounded yesterday after finding support at 1.4835 (S1) and hit resistance at 1.4975 (R1). Today we get the UK CPI for February, which is expected to have slowed. This could encourage the bears to pull the trigger for another test at the 1.4835 (S1) hurdle. A break below that line is likely to extend the bearish wave, perhaps towards our next support obstacle of 1.4775 (S2). Zooming on the 1-hour chart, I see that our hourly oscillators amplify the case for a leg down. The 14-hour RSI fell near its 50 line and could fall below it, while the MACD, although positive, stands below its trigger and points down. As for the bigger picture, the price structure on the daily chart still suggests a larger downtrend. Therefore, I would consider the recovery from 1.4630 as a corrective move of the longer-term down path.
• Support: 1.4835 (S1), 1.4775 (S2), 1.4725 (S3).
• Resistance: 1.4975 (R1), 1.5035 (R2), 1.5140 (R3).
EURJPY trades in a short-term uptrend
EURJPY continued to gain pips on Monday, but the positive wave was stopped between the support of 130.30 (S1) and the resistance of 131.85 (R1). The pair started printing higher peaks and higher troughs above the uptrend line taken from the low of the 13th of March, thus I see a positive near-term picture. A break above 131.85 (R1) would confirm a forthcoming higher high on the 4-hour chart and could see scope for extensions towards our next resistance of 133.50 (R2). On the daily chart, I still see a longer-term downtrend. I would treat the recovery from 126.90 as a retracement of that larger down path. Nevertheless, there is positive divergence between our daily oscillators and the price action. This gives me a reason to take to the side lines as far as the overall trend is concerned. I would like to wait for signs that the downtrend is gaining back momentum.
• Support: 130.30 (S1), 129.00 (S2), 128.00 (S3).
• Resistance: 131.85 (R1), 133.50 (R2), 134.60 (R3).