GB Lower Inflation – GBPAUD Above 1.90 For Bullish Setups

GB Inflation

Lower prices for food and computer goods helped to cut the rate to zero. UK inflation rate fell to 0% in February, the lowest since records began.

Key points

  • The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) was unchanged in the year to February 2015, that is, a 12-month rate of 0.0%, down from 0.3% in January.
  • The main contributions to the slowdown in the rate came from price movements for a range of recreational goods (particularly data processing equipment, books and games, toys & hobbies), food and furniture & furnishings.
  • There were no large upward effects to offset the change.
  • CPIH (not a National Statistic) grew by 0.3% in the year to February 2015, down from 0.5% in January.
  • CPIH has been revised as a result of development work on owner occupiers’ housing costs – see background note 1

Inflation Rate in the United Kingdom averaged 2.73 percent from 1989 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 8.50 percent in April of 1991 and a record low of 0 percent in February of 2015. Inflation Rate in the United Kingdom is reported by the Office for National Statistics.


Over the coming week/s I’ll assess GBPAUD price action above this level of support to warrant analysis on lower timeframes.


GBPAUD Trading Account?

For those of you who like to skip through charts looking for short-cuts, please let me make this analysis clear to you.

– This is not a buy signal
– This is part of my process of selecting potential pairs to monitor, to consider in future
– So keep this on your watch list for signs of strength above support over the coming week/s

With that in mind I would like to highlight the confluence of support around the 1.8934-0.09034 area on W1. This zone comprises of the 20 week MA, 61.8% retracement and horizontal S/R. Whilst this is on the weekly charts my plan is to monitor this area to see if it holds as support and or / produces a bullish candle around this level. If this occurs I can then refer to D1 and below to seek bullish setups, assuming the continuation of the bullish channel.

Due to the analysis being on W1 it should, if used with sensible risk management, either be approached with a wider stop and hold time, be used to aid analysis on lower timeframes or be filtered out of your watch list completely using your own reward / risk / account size ratio.

With UK inflation data out there is potential of an upside surprise as the markets expect a record low y/y CPI but the key here is to make sure we at least close above the support zone this week or ideally produce a bullish candle. We can then reassess next week and refer to lower timeframes for bullish setups.

Let’s get started...

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